U.S. Army M142 HIMARS from A Battery, 5th Battalion, 3rd Field Artillery Regiment, 1st Multi Domain Task Force in Nov 2022. Photo: Pfc. Mariah Aguilar

By Ken Pole

Under the gun to meet a U.S.-driven push within NATO to accelerate Canadian defence spending to at least two percent of gross domestic product, Prime Minister Mark Carney this week announced a plan to reach the target this fiscal year.

“Aspiration without effort is just empty rhetoric,” Carney said in a speech at the University of Toronto’s Monk School of Global Affairs June 9, a blatant observation about previous administration’s frequently stated longer-term goal of meeting the NATO target.

His speech also was a strong “elbows up” response to what he described as the U.S. “beginning to monetize its hegemony (by) charging for access to its markets and reducing its relative contributions to our collective security.”

That dominance of the world, he said, is “a thing of the past,” noting that global alliances are being rewired as other “great powers” rise and “middle powers” recognize “that if they are not at the table, they will be on the menu.”

While he reiterated pledges made during the recent election campaign, Carney provided no additional specifics during his speech. But $9.3 billion in new “foundational investments” means that projected defence spending for the 2025-2026 fiscal year will rise to $62.7 billion. That meets the NATO threshold goal and, if growth in GDP does not continue, could even surpass it.

However, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutge expects the two percent threshold to be raised to five percent at the next NATO Summit, set for June 24-25 at The Hague. Responding to U.S. President Donald Trump’s demand for a five percent target, the former Dutch PM is pressing alliance members to boost direct defence spending to 3.5 percent of GDP plus 1.5 percent on broader security-related spending.

Carney also wants Canada to join ReArm Europe, an ambitious European Commission initiative to boost self-reliance capabilities through increased collaboration with its own defence industries. Key targets for increased spending include air and missile defence, artillery systems, munitions, drones and countermeasures, and enhanced military mobility, as well as cyber, artificial intelligence and electronic warfare.

The PM told CBC recently that he hopes to have a deal in place by the end of this month and his new Defence Minister, David McGuinty, reiterated that goal at the CANSEC trade show in Ottawa on May 28.

“We’re moving quickly to ensure our military has the tools to defend our country and continent, while remaining an engaged, reliable partner abroad,” McGuinty said, trying to assuage suppliers frustrated with the government’s historically slow procurement processes. “This work can only be done in partnership with you.”

He also told the CANSEC audience that Canada plans to triple its defence spending from 2014 levels by 2030, “but is willing to accelerate this, so stay tuned.”

Government officials at a technical briefing after Carney’s speech indicated that Canada is interested in joint procurements with other allies.

The largest chunk of the new funding, $2.6 billion, will go to recruitment and retention of military personnel to address shortfalls in Regular and Primary Reserve forces, which are aiming to reach 71,500 and 30,000, respectively, by 2030.

When challenged at the briefing on the CAF’s challenge sustaining recruitment, a senior DND officer countered that, “based on what we’re seeing and the excitement building around investment in your Canadian Forces, we feel that we’re on the right path to seeing the force grow.”

There’s also $2.1 billion allocated to lay the groundwork for a comprehensive Defence Industrial Strategy focusing on reducing obstacles that currently limit suppliers’ ability to provide critical equipment and support by, among other things, leveraging joint NATO procurements.

Some $2 billion is budgeted for diversifying Canada’s defence partnerships. While the government said in a statement it would continue to “leverage partnership with the U.S. when it is in Canada’s best interest,” it will take advantage of other opportunities such as the aforementioned ReArm Europe initiative.

An additional $1 billion would “allow Canada to become increasingly self-sufficient in fulfilling its responsibility to defend its territory and citizens, especially in the Arctic . . .  with a focus on Canadian suppliers.”

Of the remaining new funding, $844 million is for repairing and sustaining “CAF capabilities” and revitalizing and optimizing key infrastructure and equipment sustainment—a critical need noted recently by the Army Sergeant Major, CWO Christopher Robin; $560 million to strengthen the “digital foundations” of the Department of National Defence, notably the Communications Security Establishment, as well as the CAF; an $135 million for defence-related investments of other government departments and agencies.”

At a technical briefing on the heels of Carney’s speech, a senior government official stressed that “the first priority” is improved CAF readiness. “This is people, this is infrastructure and equipment, parts and supply, training and importantly the digital foundations.”

Insofar as the Army is concerned, the Prime Minister’s Office issued a post-speech press release which included adding long-range fires to the arsenal. The senior military officer at the briefing noted that the Army’s current conventional artillery has a “fairly-fixed range . . . anywhere from 18 to . . . 25 kilometres” but that land-based precision weapons could push that out to 100-150 kilometres.

“The ability to hold threat actors at risk is to interdict them at distance,” he explained. “This is a capability the Army has been looking for for a long time. We have a brigade in Latvia that’s … determined to be one of the critical vulnerabilities, and therefore the investment in long-range precision strike is what we’re looking for.”

He also pointed out that the M142 High Mobility Rocket System (HIMARS) is what most allies are using. Developed by the U.S. Army and mounted on an air-transportable standard five-ton truck frame, HIMARS can launch various projectiles.

“I don’t pretend to be an artillery expert but that is the nature of the capability we’re trying to get for those Canadians in Latvia.”